Topical Luncheon 1

1 August 2016

Reputations are earned. The public demands perfection in our operations, but we work in an unpredictable and imperfect world. Sustainability and environmental awareness require small development footprints and controlled production streams. As engineers, we often try to present logic and facts, when emotions and media buzz are what really drives the conversation when it comes to sustainability and environmental awareness. It’s not "news" to present the good we do — but it is news to show the latest oil spill or some hydraulic fracturing pollution claim.

In the oil and gas industry, we all pay for the mistakes of sloppy operators and that will only worsen with increasing financial pressures. How do we preserve our license to operate in a world that distrusts us? This presentation provides perspectives and lessons-learned in dealing with sustainability and environmental awareness as part of one's job description. The goal of this presentation is to enlighten, inform, and guide the conversation of earning trust and building one's reputation in the sustainability/ environmental awareness domain.

Topical Luncheon 2

1 August 2016

Cognitive Bias (CB), in its many manifestations, is the major cause of geotechnical overestimation and faulty probability forecasts in petroleum geoscience. Companies that routinely utilize disciplined methods of Risk Analysis reduce CB and tend to deliver on their E&P promises.

Nobel laureate Daniel Kahneman and others have made scientists much more aware of the dangers that CB pose for the practice of objective, reliable science. However, CB remains a problem in public-sector science because routine E&P organizational and economic pressures are less active within academic/ governmental organizations.

Nobel laureate Richard Feynman recognized (1974) the danger of CB: “the first principle is that you must not fool yourself – and you are the easiest person to fool.” Feynman knew that dedicated practice of the Scientific Method is the key to elimination of CB.

Topical Luncheon 3

2 August 2016

To say the least, the drastic increase in seismicity in Oklahoma over the past five years has been a major issue scientifically, in the media and with the public. In response to this issue, the Oklahoma Geological Survey (OGS) has been able to significantly expand its seismic network that was established in 1978 and its staff. The OGS, industry, regulators, other state agencies and the U.S. Geological Survey have worked cooperatively to study the increase in seismicity for several years hoping to gain an understanding of the processes at work and how to mitigate the situation. However, by early 2015 the number of earthquakes in populated areas had increased to an alarming level and the job of balancing regulations, industry interests and public safety is a work in progress.

Topical Luncheon 4

2 August 2016

Few modern public policy discussions need sound and thoughtful scientific input as much as the debate on climate change does. Unfortunately, the passions inspired by this debate run so high that objective analysis takes a back seat … the way back … in a war of words where each side focuses its rhetorical excesses on vilifying the other. At some point in the not-too-distant future, we will no longer need to pour our passions into debates about future possibilities; nature will eventually speak clearly and loudly. But until that day arrives, earth scientists have an important role to play in helping society make wise decisions in the face of scientific uncertainty.

This talk will explore several aspects of the complicated problem of quantifying changes in climate and of forecasting future changes: i) the difficulties of doing the good data analysis required for reliable predictions, ii) the challenge of coping with the tsunami of data from an ever-increasing number of monitoring instruments, iii) common cultural misunderstandings about what statistics can reveal and what they can’t reveal and iv) the possibility that the past might not predict the future.